When the College Football Playoff Selection Committee unveiled its third rankings of the 2025 season on Tuesday, November 18, 2025, the biggest surprise wasn’t a top-10 upset—it was that Tulane University stood alone. At No. 24, the Tulane Green Wave became the sole Group of Five program left in the 12-team playoff picture after Houston Cougars moved to the Big 12, reclassifying them as a Power Four team. For a school in New Orleans that hasn’t cracked the top 25 in over a decade, this is a seismic shift. And yet, head coach Jon Sumrall, 42, called his own team ‘average’ after a 35-24 win over Florida Atlantic University on November 16. That’s not humility. It’s pressure.
The Rise of the Green Wave
Tulane’s climb from unranked to No. 24 didn’t happen by accident. They’ve won eight of their first ten games, including road victories over Northwestern University, Duke University, and University of Memphis. None of those wins came against top-25 opponents, according to ESPN’s Mark Schlabach, but the committee values consistency over flash. Their Strength of Record sits at No. 25 nationally—tied with Houston and Arizona State—yet Tulane’s schedule, ranked No. 71, is the toughest among Group of Five teams. That’s the kind of nuance the committee loves.What’s even more striking? South Florida Bulls, once the AAC’s surprise contender, dropped out entirely. Tulane didn’t just overtake them—they replaced them as the conference’s last hope in the playoff race. And with Houston now in the Big 12, the Green Wave are the only Group of Five team left standing. That’s not just a ranking—it’s a legacy.
Why This Matters for the Underdogs
The 12-team playoff format, introduced in 2024, was supposed to give smaller schools a real shot. But realignment has made it harder. When schools like Houston, Cincinnati, and UCF left the American Athletic Conference for Power Four leagues, the door for the remaining Group of Five teams narrowed. Tulane didn’t just survive the shakeup—they thrived in it. Now, they’re the last team holding the flag for the non-Power Five.ESPN’s Chris Low put it bluntly in his November 17 Bubble Watch: ‘Still in the mix: James Madison, North Texas, Tulane.’ But only Tulane has the combination of record, conference standing, and committee respect to make the cut. The committee doesn’t re-seed after selection, so their current No. 24 spot isn’t just symbolic—it’s a direct path to the first round. If they stay put, they’ll host No. 5 Texas Tech Red Raiders on December 20 or 21. Win that, and they face No. 4 Georgia Bulldogs in the Cotton Bowl.
The Coach Who Won’t Celebrate
Jon Sumrall’s ‘average’ comment isn’t just media spin. It’s a signal. He knows the committee doesn’t reward teams that look lucky—they reward teams that look dominant. Tulane’s offense is efficient but not explosive. Their defense is tough but not intimidating. They’ve won close games. They’ve scraped by. And that’s exactly why Sumrall is pushing them harder.‘We’ve got two games left to prove we’re not just a bubble team,’ Sumrall said after the Florida Atlantic win. ‘We’ve got to play like we belong.’
That mindset might be the difference. Teams that enter the playoff as underdogs often play with more freedom. But Tulane isn’t playing like an underdog anymore. They’re playing like they expect to be there.
The Road Ahead
Tulane’s final two regular-season games are brutal. First, they host University of South Florida on November 23—rivalry game, playoff implications, and the American Athletic Conference’s last remaining top-25 contender. Then, on November 30, they travel to University of Memphis, a team they narrowly beat earlier this season.Win both, and they’re in the AAC Championship on December 6 at Raymond James Stadium in Tampa, Florida. Lose one, and their playoff hopes vanish. The committee’s next ranking drops on November 25, and it’s expected to be the most telling yet. If Tulane stays at No. 24 or climbs even one spot, they’ll be all but locked in.
And here’s the twist: if they win the AAC title, they don’t need to be top-12. They just need to be the highest-ranked Group of Five champion. That’s the rule. And right now, they’re the only one left who can claim it.
What’s at Stake Beyond the Bracket
This isn’t just about a playoff berth. It’s about money, visibility, and recruiting. A single playoff game can generate over $10 million in revenue for a school like Tulane. A deep run could vault them into national recruiting conversations for the first time since the 1980s. Athletic director Troy Dannen, who’s been in charge since 2022, is already fielding calls from boosters and alumni who haven’t been this excited since the 2013 Cotton Bowl.‘We’re not just chasing a dream,’ Dannen told the New Orleans Times-Picayune. ‘We’re building something that lasts.’
For a program that’s spent most of the last 20 years in the background, this is more than a season. It’s a turning point.
Frequently Asked Questions
How did Tulane become the only Group of Five team in the playoff rankings?
Tulane became the sole Group of Five team in the rankings after Houston moved to the Big 12 Conference, reclassifying them as a Power Four program. With South Florida falling out of the top 25, Tulane’s 8-2 record, No. 25 Strength of Record, and No. 71 Strength of Schedule made them the highest-ranked remaining Group of Five team. The committee’s 12-team format allows only one automatic bid per conference champion, and Tulane is now the only eligible candidate from the American Athletic Conference.
What does Tulane need to do to secure a playoff spot?
Tulane must win its final two regular-season games against South Florida and Memphis, then defeat the highest-ranked opponent in the American Athletic Conference Championship on December 6, 2025, in Tampa. Even if they remain at No. 24, winning the AAC title guarantees them a spot in the 12-team bracket. The committee does not re-seed, so their current position gives them a direct path to face Texas Tech in the first round.
Why is Jon Sumrall calling his team ‘average’?
Sumrall’s comment reflects his belief that Tulane hasn’t yet played a complete, dominant game against elite competition. While their record is strong, their wins lack top-25 upsets, and their offensive efficiency is inconsistent. He’s using the label to motivate his team, signaling that the committee won’t reward mediocrity—even if the record says otherwise. It’s a psychological tactic to keep them hungry.
How does Tulane’s schedule compare to other bubble teams?
Tulane’s strength of schedule (No. 71) is the best among all Group of Five contenders, according to ESPN Analytics. James Madison and North Texas, also in the mix, have weaker schedules ranked outside the top 100. While Tulane’s wins aren’t flashy, their opponents are more competitive on average. The committee values quality over quantity, and Tulane’s wins over Duke and Northwestern give them an edge in perception—even if they’re not top-25 teams.
What happens if Tulane loses to South Florida?
If Tulane loses to South Florida, their playoff chances plummet. Even a 9-2 record wouldn’t be enough without an AAC title, and South Florida would likely jump them in the rankings. The committee has shown little tolerance for teams with two losses unless they’re conference champions. With Houston no longer in the Group of Five, Tulane is the only viable candidate—so a loss to USF would likely eliminate them from contention.
When will we know for sure if Tulane made the playoff?
The final 12-team playoff field will be announced on Selection Sunday, December 8, 2025. But the most critical indicator comes on November 25, when the committee releases its next ranking. If Tulane remains in the top 25 after their game against South Florida, they’ll be nearly guaranteed a spot—provided they win the AAC Championship. The November 25 ranking will be the true litmus test.
